Kazakhstan has joined Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in warning that the Taliban’s construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan could strain fragile water security.

At an international water security conference held in Kazakh capital Astana on May 15, Kazakh Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Aslan Abdraimov focused on the expectation that once in operation two to three years from now the Qosh Tepa irrigation canal may divert around a third of the Amu Darya river flow.

This point was taken up by Azamatkhan Amirtayev, chairman of Kazakhstan’s Baytak Party, who was reported by local media as saying: “This means that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will receive less water. Consequently, Uzbekistan may draw more from the Syr Darya, leading to reduced water availability for Kazakhstan, potentially by 30-40%.”

He added: We are facing a potential environmental and humanitarian crisis.”

Map showing the watersheds of the Amu Darya (orange) and Syr Darya (yellow) rivers. (Credit: By Shannon1 - Own work, cc-by-sa 4.0).

Amirtayev called for regional cooperation and scientifically informed policymaking to mitigate water losses.

“In the long term, we understand there will be a decrease in the Syr Darya River’s flow,” Abdraimov added. “This will affect our long-suffering Aral Sea.”

Tajikistan is fortunate to be upstream from where the ‘thirsty’ Qosh Tepa canal will draw water, but downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have for the past three years been assessing any water shortage impacts their farmers and other consumers of Amu Darya water may face, while working to cooperate with the Taliban on the water management that will be required.

The conference, titled “Water Security and Trans-Border Water Use: Challenges and Solutions”, included Taliban delegates gathered with representatives from countries including Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and Israel and other nations.

Cooperation not confrontation was a principle emphasised by many delegates. Afghanistan is after all entitled to a share of the Amu Darya’s waters that flow along its border, it is just that this is the first time in history that the country has moved to capitalise on that entitlement in a major way.

“This is not about criticism,” Amirtayev was also quoted as saying, adding: “We are gathering both domestic and international experts to find a constructive solution.”

The Aral Sea, once among the world’s largest lakes, was decimated and desiccated by decades of over-irrigation and mismanagement during Soviet times. Efforts to recover its largely obliterated water system could be frustrated by any more water loss.

Construction of the Qosh Tepa began in May 2022.

It is an ambitious megaproject. At 100 metres wide and 285 kilometres (177 miles) long, it will draw water from the Amu Darya in Kaldar district of Balkh province at a point just west of Uzbekistan’s border with Tajikistan.

Though the Taliban have shown willingness to discuss the prospect of their canal becoming an added burden on regional water security, occasional statements in the Afghan media make it clear Afghanistan has every right to take substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya river.

As concerns about the canal grew across Central Asia, Afghanistan’s Khaama Press said in March 2023 that “due to the two decades of conflict [Afghanistan] has yet to be able to use its water resources” and “[a]s a result, most neighbouring countries took advantage of the situation and utilised the water without consulting Afghanistan.”